AI驱动的供应链风险管理

APPLICATION Nov 6, 2024

在当今动荡的商业环境中，供应链中断可能由各种不可预测的因素引起，包括政治不稳定、环境危机和经济变化。传统的供应链风险管理通常依赖于定期的人工评估，难以跟上这些快速发展的风险。

本博客探讨了 AI 代理如何与 Autogen 框架和 Tavily 网络搜索 API 集成，通过提供实时、自动化的洞察来改变风险管理。通过多代理架构，供应链团队可以及时收到可操作的情报，使他们能够主动应对新出现的威胁。

1、AI 代理、Tavily 和 Autogen

AI 代理是自主系统，旨在完成特定任务或独立做出决策，通常遵循结构化的推理、行动和观察方法。在这种设置中，每个 AI 代理的任务是监控供应链风险的特定方面（金融、地缘政治、环境），并使用逻辑驱动的步骤得出结论。

Autogen 是一个框架，它使这些代理能够作为一个有凝聚力的多代理系统运行，使它们能够协作、共享发现并汇总见解。Autogen 促进了多个代理的部署和编排，每个代理都专注于特定领域，并确保它们协同工作以生成全面的风险概况。

Tavily 是一个网络搜索 API，它为代理提供了从网络访问实时动态数据的权限。与仅检索预先索引或定期更新的信息的静态 API 不同，Tavily 支持实时搜索，可以实时响应特定的查询输入。这使其对于风险管理非常有用，因为有关财务绩效、地缘政治事件和环境变化的最新信息至关重要。

2、挑战

现代供应链极其复杂，涉及众多供应商、地区和风险因素。为了有效地管理风险，公司需要监控可能影响供应商的各种外部事件和指标，例如财务状况、政治稳定性和环境风险。传统上，公司依赖以下方法，每种方法都存在重大局限性：

供应链风险管理的传统解决方案包括：

a) 手动风险评估：传统上，供应链风险评估由分析师定期进行，手动审查供应商信息、市场数据和地缘政治事件。这种方法速度慢、劳动密集且被动，通常会让关键发展直到下一个审查周期才被发现。在当今快节奏的环境中，手动流程固有的延迟可能会导致严重中断并错失降低风险的机会。

b) 基于静态 API 的数据馈送：许多公司已采用静态 API 来自动检索某些类型的数据，例如财务报告、天气模式或地缘政治指数。虽然静态 API 比纯手动方法有所改进，但它在几个关键方面受到限制：

延迟更新：大多数静态 API 以定期更新周期运行，这意味着它们可能仅每天、每周甚至每月刷新数据。这种延迟可能会导致过时的见解，尤其是在条件快速变化的情况下。
范围狭窄：静态 API 通常提供来自有限来源的数据，可能无法涵盖所有相关事件或发展。例如，地缘政治 API 可能仅提供主要国家级指数，而不提供可能影响特定供应商的本地化事件的背景信息。
缺乏灵活性：使用静态 API，查询通常是预定义的，返回的数据仅限于最初索引的数据。它们缺乏执行后续查询或根据实时发现进行调整的能力，这降低了它们提供上下文相关见解的能力。

c) 定期供应商审计：许多公司每年或每半年对主要供应商进行一次审计，以评估财务状况、法规遵从性和运营稳定性。虽然这些审计很有价值，但它们并不频繁，并且仅提供供应商状态的快照。审计之间出现的风险可能会被忽视，而当问题被发现时，它们可能已经升级。

这些传统解决方案通常缺乏应对当今全球供应链动态特性所需的灵活性。由于定期评估、有限的数据源和不灵活的静态查询，供应链团队经常无法获得有效管理风险所需的及时和全面的见解。因此，他们可能会发现自己在问题已经影响供应链后才做出反应，而不是主动管理风险。

3、更好的解决方案。

由 Autogen 框架提供支持并与 Tavily 的实时搜索功能集成的 AI 代理为这些传统方法提供了一种动态、自适应的替代方案。与静态 API 不同，Tavily 支持可根据特定需求定制的实时网络搜索，提供跨多个领域的最新见解。这使 AI 代理能够持续监控风险并在新信息可用时调整其搜索重点，从而创建一个主动而全面的风险管理系统。

本文所提出的解决方案利用具有 Autogen 框架和 Tavily 集成的 AI 代理来自动化和增强供应链风险管理。通过为金融、地缘政治和环境风险领域创建专门的代理，系统可以持续监控实时数据并为供应链团队提供综合见解。每个代理都使用 Tavily 的网络搜索功能来提取与其领域相关的最新信息，从而实现对潜在威胁的快速、数据驱动的响应。

4、用例：全球供应商的自动化风险管理

考虑一家依赖供应商“ABC”的跨国公司，该公司在政治不稳定和环境风险高的地区开展业务。该公司的主要担忧包括：

财务波动：ABC 的财务状况因货币兑换风险和信贷风险而波动。
地缘政治紧张局势：政治不稳定和监管变化威胁着 ABC 主要地区的运营。
环境威胁：ABC 的设施位于洪水易发地区，这可能会在季风季节扰乱生产。

通过使用 Tavily 实施 AI 代理，该公司可以主动监控这些风险并减轻潜在的干扰。

4.1 解决方案架构和工作流程

多代理系统架构包括三个专门的代理：

金融风险代理：监控财务绩效，使用 Tavily 检索与 ABC 财务稳定性相关的最新报告、新闻和分析。
地缘政治风险代理：跟踪政治和监管变化，确保尽早标记地缘政治变化对运营的潜在影响。
环境风险代理：评估环境风险，如自然灾害和影响生产和运输的新法规。

工作流程：

实时数据收集：每个代理不断向 Tavily 查询其各自风险领域的最新信息，从而消除对定期评估的依赖。
情境决策：代理采用思维树 (ToT) 方法来探索更深入的见解。例如，如果 FinancialRiskAgent 检测到不稳定，它将进一步调查债务水平、现金流和市场趋势。
合并和报告：SummaryAgent 汇总调查结果，为供应链团队创建包含可操作建议的综合风险概况。

4.2 实现代码

import os
from typing import Annotated
from tavily import TavilyClient
from autogen import AssistantAgent, UserProxyAgent, register_function
from autogen.cache import Cache
from autogen.coding import LocalCommandLineCodeExecutor

# Configuration for OpenAI and Tavily API keys
os.environ["OPENAI_API_KEY"] = '<OPEN_API_KEY>'
os.environ["TAVILY_API_KEY"] = '<YOUR_TAVILY_KEY>'

config_list = [{"model": "gpt-3.5-turbo", "api_key": os.environ["OPENAI_API_KEY"]}]
tavily = TavilyClient(api_key=os.environ["TAVILY_API_KEY"])


# Function to use Tavily API for external searches
def tavily_search_tool(query: Annotated[str, "Supply Chain Risk Query"]) -> Annotated[str, "Search results from Tavily"]:
    return tavily.get_search_context(query=query, search_depth="advanced")

# React Prompts with dynamic, follow-up search instructions
FinancialRisk_prompt = """
Evaluate the financial risk for {supplier_name}.
Paths to consider:
1. Check recent financial performance.
2. Look into debt levels or market reputation.

Use the following format for reasoning:
Thought: Define the specific financial aspect to examine.
Action: Execute Tavily search for that aspect.
Observation: Analyze results.
If debt levels or negative terms (e.g., "bankruptcy", "lawsuit") appear, conduct a follow-up search for recent financial restructuring or lawsuits.
Final Answer: Summarize financial risk findings.

Question: {input}
"""

GeopoliticalRisk_prompt = """
Assess geopolitical risks in {region} affecting {supplier_name}.
Paths to consider:
1. Review political stability and recent events.
2. Examine trade sanctions or regulatory shifts.

Use the following format for reasoning:
Thought: Define the geopolitical aspect to examine.
Action: Execute Tavily search for that aspect.
Observation: Analyze results.
If trade sanctions or political unrest is detected, perform a follow-up search for policy changes and any economic reactions from trading partners.
Final Answer: Summarize geopolitical risk findings.

Question: {input}
"""

EnvironmentalRisk_prompt = """
Assess environmental risks in {location} affecting {supplier_name}.
Paths to consider:
1. Check for recent natural disasters.
2. Examine climate policy changes or environmental regulations.

Use the following format for reasoning:
Thought: Define the environmental aspect to examine.
Action: Execute Tavily search for that aspect.
Observation: Analyze results.
If recurring natural disasters or strict policies are noted, perform a follow-up search on government responses or adaptation incentives.
Final Answer: Summarize environmental risk findings.

Question: {input}
"""

# Define the ReAct prompting messages
def financial_risk_message(sender, recipient, context):
    return FinancialRisk_prompt.format(supplier_name=context["supplier_name"], input=context["question"])

def geopolitical_risk_message(sender, recipient, context):
    return GeopoliticalRisk_prompt.format(region=context["region"], supplier_name=context["supplier_name"], input=context["question"])

def environmental_risk_message(sender, recipient, context):
    return EnvironmentalRisk_prompt.format(location=context["location"], supplier_name=context["supplier_name"], input=context["question"])

# Set up user and assistant agents
user_proxy = UserProxyAgent(
    name="User",
    human_input_mode="NEVER",
    max_consecutive_auto_reply=5,
    code_execution_config={"executor": LocalCommandLineCodeExecutor(work_dir="coding")},
)

financial_agent = AssistantAgent(
    name="FinancialRiskAgent",
    system_message="Assess financial risk using Tavily search and perform follow-up if specific keywords detected. Reply TERMINATE when done.",
    llm_config={"config_list": config_list, "cache_seed": None},
)

geopolitical_agent = AssistantAgent(
    name="GeopoliticalRiskAgent",
    system_message="Assess geopolitical risks using Tavily search with dynamic follow-ups if needed. Reply TERMINATE when done.",
    llm_config={"config_list": config_list, "cache_seed": None},
)

environmental_agent = AssistantAgent(
    name="EnvironmentalRiskAgent",
    system_message="Evaluate environmental risks and perform adaptive search based on Tavily results. Reply TERMINATE when done.",
    llm_config={"config_list": config_list, "cache_seed": None},
)

# Register Tavily search function for each agent
register_function(
    tavily_search_tool,
    caller=financial_agent,
    executor=user_proxy,
    name="tavily_search_tool",
    description="Conducts a search for financial risk data using Tavily",
)

register_function(
    tavily_search_tool,
    caller=geopolitical_agent,
    executor=user_proxy,
    name="tavily_search_tool",
    description="Conducts a search for geopolitical risk data using Tavily",
)

register_function(
    tavily_search_tool,
    caller=environmental_agent,
    executor=user_proxy,
    name="tavily_search_tool",
    description="Conducts a search for environmental risk data using Tavily",
)

# Cache and initiate chat for each agent
with Cache.disk(cache_seed=43) as cache:
    # Financial Risk Assessment
    user_proxy.initiate_chat(
        financial_agent,
        message=financial_risk_message,
        supplier_name="ABC Supplier",
        question="Evaluate the financial risk for ABC Supplier.",
        cache=cache,
    )

    # Geopolitical Risk Assessment
    user_proxy.initiate_chat(
        geopolitical_agent,
        message=geopolitical_risk_message,
        region="Southeast Asia",
        supplier_name="ABC Supplier",
        question="Assess geopolitical risks in Southeast Asia affecting ABC Supplier.",
        cache=cache,
    )

    # Environmental Risk Assessment
    user_proxy.initiate_chat(
        environmental_agent,
        message=environmental_risk_message,
        location="Bangkok, Thailand",
        supplier_name="ABC Supplier",
        question="Assess environmental risks in Bangkok, Thailand affecting ABC Supplier.",
        cache=cache,
    )

输出结果如下：

User (to FinancialRiskAgent):


Evaluate the financial risk for ABC Supplier.
Paths to consider:
1. Check recent financial performance.
2. Look into debt levels or market reputation.

Use the following format for reasoning:
Thought: Define the specific financial aspect to examine.
Action: Execute Tavily search for that aspect.
Observation: Analyze results.
If debt levels or negative terms (e.g., "bankruptcy", "lawsuit") appear, conduct a follow-up search for recent financial restructuring or lawsuits.
Final Answer: Summarize financial risk findings.

Question: Evaluate the financial risk for ABC Supplier.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FinancialRiskAgent (to User):

***** Suggested tool call (call_idCVXCSPcHnXqnut3qzOpSTg): tavily_search_tool *****
Arguments:
{"query": "ABC Supplier recent financial performance"}
***********************************************************************************
***** Suggested tool call (call_3YSNR7hRxhDmyBuI4Y19wPnq): tavily_search_tool *****
Arguments:
{"query": "ABC Supplier debt levels or market reputation"}
***********************************************************************************

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

>>>>>>>> EXECUTING FUNCTION tavily_search_tool...

>>>>>>>> EXECUTING FUNCTION tavily_search_tool...
User (to FinancialRiskAgent):

User (to FinancialRiskAgent):

***** Response from calling tool (call_idCVXCSPcHnXqnut3qzOpSTg) *****
"[\"{\\\"url\\\": \\\"https://abctechnologies.com/investors/\\\", \\\"content\\\": \\\"ABC is a leading global manufacturer and supplier of custom, highly engineered, technical plastics and lightweighting innovations to the automotive industry, serving more than 25 original equipment manufacturer (\\\\\\\"OEM\\\\\\\") customers globally through a strategically located footprint. With first-to-market products and proprietary vertical\\\"}\", \"{\\\"url\\\": \\\"https://www.apollo.com/insights-news/pressreleases/2021/04/apollo-funds-to-acquire-majority-control-of-abc-technologies-holdings-inc-133129981\\\", \\\"content\\\": \\\"ABC Technologies President and CEO Todd Sheppelman said, \\\\\\\"ABC's strong operational and financial performance, combined with its near-term opportunities as a platform for industry consolidation in the automotive technical plastics space, led to an unsolicited offer from the Apollo Funds to acquire a majority stake in the Company and join in\\\"}\", \"{\\\"url\\\": \\\"https://www.forbes.com/companies/abc-supply/\\\", \\\"content\\\": \\\"ABC Supply is an \\\\\\\"employee-first\\\\\\\" company that treats its associates with respect and gives them the tools they need to succeed. The company was also named a Best Employer for New Grads by\\\"}\", \"{\\\"url\\\": \\\"https://www.abcgroupinc.com/investors/investors-home/\\\", \\\"content\\\": \\\"Investors Home - ABC Technologies. ABC is a leading global manufacturer and supplier of custom, highly engineered, technical plastics and lightweighting innovations to the automotive industry, serving more than 25 original equipment manufacturer (\\\\\\\"OEM\\\\\\\") customers globally through a strategically located footprint. With first-to-market\\\"}\", \"{\\\"url\\\": \\\"https://www.roofingcontractor.com/articles/99253-roofing-industry-q-and-a-abc-supply\\\", \\\"content\\\": \\\"ABC Supply Adds Solar Rooftop Delivery, New Technology for Roofing Contractors in 2024. By Art Aisner. March 12, 2024. Editor's Note: Gauging the pulse of the roofing industry annually continues to be a challenge as roofers adapt to a rapidly changing marketplace. In addition to the survey circulated last fall that laid the foundation for the\\\"}\"]"
**********************************************************************

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
User (to FinancialRiskAgent):

***** Response from calling tool (call_3YSNR7hRxhDmyBuI4Y19wPnq) *****
"[\"{\\\"url\\\": \\\"https://www.accelerated-insight.com/spend-analysis/what-is-spend-analysis-abc\\\", \\\"content\\\": \\\"Supplier ABC Analysis, provides management with a process that segments suppliers into Three Spend Categories (ABC), relevant for a given time period and based upon the total procurement spend.The benefits of spend analysis using supplier ABC include, reduced costs, lower inventory levels, improved supplier management and allocates resources to strategic projects.\\\"}\", \"{\\\"url\\\": \\\"https://www.upguard.com/blog/vendor-risk-assessment-criteria\\\", \\\"content\\\": \\\"Perform an analysis of the vendor's financial trends, comparing revenue profitability and debt levels over time. Review the vendor's financial reports and any financial audit findings; Analyze the vendor's financial statements, credit ratings, and market position. Evaluate the vendor's revenue trends, profitability, and debt levels.\\\"}\", \"{\\\"url\\\": \\\"https://oboloo.com/demystifying-abc-analysis-a-closer-look-at-its-role-in-procurement-management/\\\", \\\"content\\\": \\\"By utilizing ABC Analysis, organizations can gain insights into their inventory management strategies and make informed decisions regarding stock levels, ordering frequency, and supplier relationships. For example, category A items often require close attention as they contribute significantly to revenue generation or customer satisfaction.\\\"}\", \"{\\\"url\\\": \\\"https://www.agrinventory.com/blog/the-abcs-of-abc-analysis/\\\", \\\"content\\\": \\\"This approach also enables companies to optimize their procurement process by negotiating better prices for high-value items, reducing lead times, and improving supplier relationships. C is for Challenges. ABC analysis is not a one-time process and needs to be updated regularly to reflect changes in demand, product life cycles, and market\\\"}\", \"{\\\"url\\\": \\\"https://www.linkedin.com/advice/1/how-can-you-evaluate-credibility-new-supplier-qjjof\\\", \\\"content\\\": \\\"Evaluate a new supplier by researching their background, financial stability, and reputation, including customer feedback. Look for pertinent certifications and industry standard compliance\\\"}\"]"
**********************************************************************

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FinancialRiskAgent (to User):

Thought: Check recent financial performance of ABC Supplier.
Action: Execute Tavily search for recent financial performance of ABC Supplier.
Observation: The search results indicate positive financial performance and an unsolicited offer to acquire a majority stake in the company.
Thought: Look into debt levels or market reputation of ABC Supplier.
Action: Execute Tavily search for debt levels or market reputation of ABC Supplier.
Observation: The search results mention supplier ABC analysis, spend categories, and benefits of spend analysis.
Final Answer: Based on the search results, ABC Supplier appears to have strong operational and financial performance with no clear indication of financial risk such as high debt levels or negative market reputation. The company's positive performance and opportunities for industry consolidation suggest a favorable financial outlook.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
User (to FinancialRiskAgent):



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FinancialRiskAgent (to User):

Terminate

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
User (to FinancialRiskAgent):



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FinancialRiskAgent (to User):

Terminate

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
User (to FinancialRiskAgent):



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FinancialRiskAgent (to User):

Goodbye

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
User (to FinancialRiskAgent):



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FinancialRiskAgent (to User):

Goodbye!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
User (to GeopoliticalRiskAgent):


Assess geopolitical risks in Southeast Asia affecting ABC Supplier.
Paths to consider:
1. Review political stability and recent events.
2. Examine trade sanctions or regulatory shifts.

Use the following format for reasoning:
Thought: Define the geopolitical aspect to examine.
Action: Execute Tavily search for that aspect.
Observation: Analyze results.
If trade sanctions or political unrest is detected, perform a follow-up search for policy changes and any economic reactions from trading partners.
Final Answer: Summarize geopolitical risk findings.

Question: Assess geopolitical risks in Southeast Asia affecting ABC Supplier.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GeopoliticalRiskAgent (to User):

***** Suggested tool call (call_vz3bEhoZpQYukSDDLNsJuSRs): tavily_search_tool *****
Arguments:
{"query": "Political stability Southeast Asia"}
***********************************************************************************
***** Suggested tool call (call_ZsKEqpOgMRyxkzV5X7NhhkGj): tavily_search_tool *****
Arguments:
{"query": "Trade sanctions Southeast Asia"}
***********************************************************************************

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

>>>>>>>> EXECUTING FUNCTION tavily_search_tool...

>>>>>>>> EXECUTING FUNCTION tavily_search_tool...
User (to GeopoliticalRiskAgent):

User (to GeopoliticalRiskAgent):

***** Response from calling tool (call_vz3bEhoZpQYukSDDLNsJuSRs) *****
"[\"{\\\"url\\\": \\\"https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/FP_20200714_governance_democracy_se_asia_pepinsky_v2.pdf\\\", \\\"content\\\": \\\"the world have identified Southeast Asia as a region that is particularly vulnerable to democratic ... of political stability \\\\u2014 is shaping the region. In the midst of the ongoing COVID-19\\\"}\", \"{\\\"url\\\": \\\"https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2024/09/political-leadership-transitions-shape-future-asean/\\\", \\\"content\\\": \\\"Recent political leadership changes could create greater solidarity, much-needed economic reforms and deeper regional integration for ASEAN countries. ... ASEAN countries can navigate these transitions smoothly, promoting peace, stability and prosperity in Southeast Asia. Compromise and commitment to camaraderie will be key to success.\\\"}\", \"{\\\"url\\\": \\\"https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/rankings/wb_political_stability/South-East-Asia/\\\", \\\"content\\\": \\\"Political stability index (-2.5 weak; 2.5 strong), 2022: The average for 2022 based on 11 countries was -0.07 points. The highest value was in Singapore: 1.46 points and the lowest value was in Burma (Myanmar): -2.21 points. The indicator is available from 1996 to 2022.\\\"}\", \"{\\\"url\\\": \\\"https://fulcrum.sg/aseanfocus/changing-political-landscapes-and-leadership-transitions-in-southeast-asia/\\\", \\\"content\\\": \\\"ASEANFocus invites experts to assess the changing political landscape and leadership transitions in Southeast Asia, and its implications for society and regional stability. Indonesia will be holding its presidential and parliamentary elections in February 2024. Identity politics, including the use of religious sentiments, have influenced the\\\"}\", \"{\\\"url\\\": \\\"https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FREP-03-2021-0021/full/html\\\", \\\"content\\\": \\\"In Southeast Asia, there is no correlation between economic growth performance and the degree of citizen participation in governance. Finally, this paper has argued that sustained economic growth in Southeast Asia occurred when there were long periods of political stability that created a stable environment for investment.\\\"}\"]"
**********************************************************************

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
User (to GeopoliticalRiskAgent):

***** Response from calling tool (call_ZsKEqpOgMRyxkzV5X7NhhkGj) *****
"[\"{\\\"url\\\": \\\"https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trade-war/Southeast-Asia-feared-next-on-list-for-US-trade-sanctions\\\", \\\"content\\\": \\\"Trade war Southeast Asia feared next on list for US trade sanctions. Thailand's exchange rate policy comes under Washington scrutiny\\\"}\", \"{\\\"url\\\": \\\"https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=13290418-d04a-43c0-91dc-784601baae85\\\", \\\"content\\\": \\\"Regional Trade Report 2022 - Free Trade Agreements & Trade Sanctions Rajah & Tann Asia Indonesia , Malaysia , Myanmar , Philippines , Singapore , Thailand , Vietnam January 27 2023\\\"}\", \"{\\\"url\\\": \\\"https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/risky-business-southeast-asias-continued-trade-russia\\\", \\\"content\\\": \\\"Risky Business: Southeast Asia's Continued Trade with Russia. Russian defence companies continued exporting goods to Southeast Asia in 2022, exposing the region to the crosshairs of Western sanctions and emphasising Russia's interest in preserving regional market influence despite domestic wartime economic conditions.\\\"}\", \"{\\\"url\\\": \\\"https://theconversation.com/3-years-on-from-coup-economic-sanctions-look-unlikely-to-push-myanmar-back-to-democracy-221297\\\", \\\"content\\\": \\\"During the first sanctions regime from 1988 to 2015, Southeast Asian economic ties with Myanmar became stronger as the country's trade with sanctions-imposing Western states declined.\\\"}\", \"{\\\"url\\\": \\\"https://www.whitecase.com/insight-alert/us-department-commerce-determines-imports-southeast-asia-are-circumventing-addcvd\\\", \\\"content\\\": \\\"On August 18, 2023, the US Department of Commerce (\\\\\\\"Commerce\\\\\\\") issued its final affirmative determinations that solar cells and modules completed in Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, or Vietnam (collectively, \\\\\\\"Southeast Asia\\\\\\\") using components from China, and exported to the United States, are circumventing the antidumping duty (\\\\\\\"ADD\\\\\\\") and countervailing duty (\\\\\\\"CVD\\\\\\\") orders on solar cells, whether\\\"}\"]"
**********************************************************************

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GeopoliticalRiskAgent (to User):

**Political Stability in Southeast Asia:**
- **[Source 1:](https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/FP_20200714_governance_democracy_se_asia_pepinsky_v2.pdf)** The region is vulnerable to democratic challenges, and the ongoing COVID-19 situation is affecting political stability.
- **[Source 2:](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2024/09/political-leadership-transitions-shape-future-asean/)** Recent leadership changes could bring economic reforms and enhance regional integration for ASEAN.
- **[Source 3:](https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/rankings/wb_political_stability/South-East-Asia/)** The political stability index for Southeast Asia in 2022 shows variations among countries.
- **[Source 4:](https://fulcrum.sg/aseanfocus/changing-political-landscapes-and-leadership-transitions-in-southeast-asia/)** The changing political landscape and upcoming elections in Indonesia could impact regional stability.
- **[Source 5:](https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FREP-03-2021-0021/full/html)** Economic growth in Southeast Asia is linked to periods of political stability.

**Trade Sanctions in Southeast Asia:**
- **[Source 1:](https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trade-war/Southeast-Asia-feared-next-on-list-for-US-trade-sanctions)** Southeast Asia is being monitored for potential trade sanctions, with attention on Thailand's exchange rate policy.
- **[Source 2:](https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=13290418-d04a-43c0-91dc-784601baae85)** Trade agreements, including sanctions, are significant for countries like Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.
- **[Source 3:](https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/risky-business-southeast-asias-continued-trade-russia)** Southeast Asia's trade with Russia poses risks due to Russian defense exports, exposing the region to potential Western sanctions.     
- **[Source 4:](https://theconversation.com/3-years-on-from-coup-economic-sanctions-look-unlikely-to-push-myanmar-back-to-democracy-221297)** Economic ties between Myanmar and Southeast Asia strengthened during Myanmar's past sanctions periods.
- **[Source 5:](https://www.whitecase.com/insight-alert/us-department-commerce-determines-imports-southeast-asia-are-circumventing-addcvd)** The US Department of Commerce identified circumvention of duties from solar products imported from Southeast Asia.

I will analyze the results to provide a summary of the geopolitical risks affecting ABC Supplier in Southeast Asia.
***** Suggested tool call (call_y6pFgrk4BXUA0g7M28KmeQSv): tavily_search_tool *****
Arguments:
{"query":"Geopolitical risks ABC Supplier Southeast Asia"}
***********************************************************************************

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>>>>>>>> EXECUTING FUNCTION tavily_search_tool...
User (to GeopoliticalRiskAgent):

User (to GeopoliticalRiskAgent):

***** Response from calling tool (call_y6pFgrk4BXUA0g7M28KmeQSv) *****
"[\"{\\\"url\\\": \\\"https://blogs.idc.com/2024/09/30/chips-and-challenges-southeast-asia-and-indias-semiconductor-manufacturing-crossroads/\\\", \\\"content\\\": \\\"Geopolitical tensions are driving semiconductor supply chains to expand beyond China and Taiwan, with Southeast Asia and India emerging as key regions, though challenges persist. Home; Markets and Trends; ... In foundry, for example, a fab with a capacity of 30,000-40,000 wafers/month will need at least 10 nearby material suppliers, even if\\\"}\", \"{\\\"url\\\": \\\"https://www.controlrisks.com/our-thinking/insights/big-picture-series-the-great-supply-chain-relocation\\\", \\\"content\\\": \\\"The great supply chain relocation - pitching South-East Asia amid China woes. Analysis 08 Jun 2022. Author: Hua Zhen Goh Asia Pacific Political and Country Risk. Regional supply chains have been in the spotlight recently with COVID-19-related disruptions in China. We explore how companies can expand operations into South-East Asia, and the\\\"}\", \"{\\\"url\\\": \\\"https://www.bcg.com/news/5december2023-getting-supply-chain-resilience-right-southeast-asia\\\", \\\"content\\\": \\\"Writing in The Business Times, BCG's Kazutoshi Tominaga and Hitesh Tak explain that Southeast Asia has emerged as an attractive destination for supply-chain relocation due to geopolitical uncertainties, regional policy measures, and a growing domestic market. BCG research projects that the region's exports will increase by nearly 90% by 2031, reaching $3.2 trillion.\\\"}\", \"{\\\"url\\\": \\\"https://eastasiaforum.org/2023/06/05/geopolitical-challenges-to-southeast-asian-development-strategies/\\\", \\\"content\\\": \\\"Southeast Asian economies weathered the pandemic relatively well, notwithstanding hardship due to lockdowns. The geopolitical challenges brought by increasingly antagonistic competition between the United States and China are a looming threat to the region's prosperity, but so too are the perverse growth effects of protectionist policies.. Southeast Asia has benefited from limited decoupling\\\"}\", \"{\\\"url\\\": \\\"https://www.controlrisks.com/our-thinking/podcasts/asia-in-focus-channel/the-future-of-the-global-supply-chain\\\", \\\"content\\\": \\\"Rising concerns in the context of geopolitical tensions and COVID-19 have intensified the focus on global supply chains. Judging by the numerous headlines and discussions about diversification from China to South-East Asia, it would appear that the supply chain landscape is in the process of being completely reshaped.\\\"}\"]"
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GeopoliticalRiskAgent (to User):

**Geopolitical Risks Affecting ABC Supplier in Southeast Asia:**

1. **[Semiconductor Supply Chains](https://blogs.idc.com/2024/09/30/chips-and-challenges-southeast-asia-and-indias-semiconductor-manufacturing-crossroads/):** Geopolitical tensions are driving the expansion of semiconductor supply chains beyond China and Taiwan, with Southeast Asia and India becoming key regions. However, challenges exist in terms of material supplier proximity.

2. **[Supply Chain Relocation](https://www.controlrisks.com/our-thinking/insights/big-picture-series-the-great-supply-chain-relocation):** Southeast Asia is emerging as an attractive destination for supply chain relocation amid challenges faced by companies in China. This shift allows for business expansion and operational resilience.

3. **[Supply Chain Resilience](https://www.bcg.com/news/5december2023-getting-supply-chain-resilience-right-southeast-asia):** Southeast Asia's attractiveness for supply chain relocation is driven by geopolitical uncertainties, regional policies, and a growing domestic market. Export projections indicate a substantial increase in the region's exports by 2031.

4. **[Geopolitical Challenges](https://eastasiaforum.org/2023/06/05/geopolitical-challenges-to-southeast-asian-development-strategies/):** The antagonistic competition between the United States and China poses threats to Southeast Asia's prosperity. Protectionist policies and geopolitical tensions impact the region's development strategies.

5. **[Global Supply Chain Future](https://www.controlrisks.com/our-thinking/podcasts/asia-in-focus-channel/the-future-of-the-global-supply-chain):** Geopolitical tensions and the impact of COVID-19 have intensified concerns about global supply chains. There is a significant focus on reshaping the supply chain landscape, including diversification from China to Southeast Asia.

Considering these factors, ABC Supplier operating in Southeast Asia faces challenges and opportunities related to geopolitical shifts, supply chain relocation, and the evolving global trade landscape. The region's political stability and trade dynamics play a crucial role in determining the risks and opportunities for ABC Supplier's operations.

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User (to GeopoliticalRiskAgent):



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GeopoliticalRiskAgent (to User):

Is there anything else you would like to know or any specific aspect you need further information on regarding the geopolitical risks in Southeast Asia affecting ABC Supplier?

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User (to GeopoliticalRiskAgent):



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GeopoliticalRiskAgent (to User):

I'm glad I could help! If you have any more questions in the future or need further assistance, feel free to reach out. Have a great day!

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User (to GeopoliticalRiskAgent):



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GeopoliticalRiskAgent (to User):

TERMINATE
Goodbye!

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User (to EnvironmentalRiskAgent):


Assess environmental risks in Bangkok, Thailand affecting ABC Supplier.
Paths to consider:
1. Check for recent natural disasters.
2. Examine climate policy changes or environmental regulations.

Use the following format for reasoning:
Thought: Define the environmental aspect to examine.
Action: Execute Tavily search for that aspect.
Observation: Analyze results.
If recurring natural disasters or strict policies are noted, perform a follow-up search on government responses or adaptation incentives.
Final Answer: Summarize environmental risk findings.

Question: Assess environmental risks in Bangkok, Thailand affecting ABC Supplier.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EnvironmentalRiskAgent (to User):

***** Suggested tool call (call_nWHEtIZLxKjxenulxZt9Ib3O): tavily_search_tool *****
Arguments:
{"query": "Bangkok Thailand recent natural disasters"}
***********************************************************************************
***** Suggested tool call (call_BAnBllakVh5hwWkmZXfKnJ0r): tavily_search_tool *****
Arguments:
{"query": "Bangkok Thailand climate policy changes environmental regulations"}
***********************************************************************************

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

>>>>>>>> EXECUTING FUNCTION tavily_search_tool...

>>>>>>>> EXECUTING FUNCTION tavily_search_tool...
User (to EnvironmentalRiskAgent):

User (to EnvironmentalRiskAgent):

***** Response from calling tool (call_nWHEtIZLxKjxenulxZt9Ib3O) *****
"[\"{\\\"url\\\": \\\"https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/flooding-in-5-southern-thai-provinces-affects-10-hospitals\\\", \\\"content\\\": \\\"Dec 27, 2023, 08:16 PM. BANGKOK - Floods in southern Thailand have killed at least six people and affected tens of thousands of households, the authorities said on Dec 27. The floods, which\\\"}\", \"{\\\"url\\\": \\\"https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2021/9/30/thailand-issues-new-flood-warnings-amid-heavy-monsoon-rains\\\", \\\"content\\\": \\\"30 Sep 2021. Bangkok and other areas of central Thailand have received new warnings of possible major flooding, even as disaster relief authorities said the threat was easing in 13 of 30 provinces\\\"}\", \"{\\\"url\\\": \\\"https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/726c467147d44b57b62c39f9fe30430a\\\", \\\"content\\\": \\\"Flooding has affected more than 200,000 households in 31 provinces over the past week and persists in 18 provinces to the north of Bangkok.From Sept 23 to Sept 30, flooding triggered by days of heavy rain brought by tropical storm Dianmu ravaged 31 provinces in the North, Northeast and Central Plains.A total of 6,335 villages in 190 districts were left awash by floods that affected 227,470\\\"}\", \"{\\\"url\\\": \\\"https://apnews.com/article/environment-and-nature-floods-storms-thailand-bangkok-9f53edec2d4e90190c5473586d370236\\\", \\\"content\\\": \\\"Thai people wade through floodwaters in Chaiyaphum province, northeast of Bangkok, Thailand, Wednesday, Sept. 29, 2021. The capital Bangkok and other areas in central Thailand have received new warnings of possible major flooding, even as disaster relief authorities said Wednesday that such a threat had passed in 13 of 30 provinces that were lashed with seasonal monsoon rains.\\\"}\", \"{\\\"url\\\": \\\"https://th.boell.org/en/2021/11/01/short-long-term-solutions-bangkok-flood\\\", \\\"content\\\": \\\"Ten years ago, Thailand faced its worst ever flooding which killed over 800 and caused over US$45 billion in damage. The floods inundated large swathes of Bangkok and the surrounding areas for two months. This year Thailand once again experienced widespread flooding, affecting over one million and killing nine people.\\\"}\"]"
**********************************************************************

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
User (to EnvironmentalRiskAgent):

***** Response from calling tool (call_BAnBllakVh5hwWkmZXfKnJ0r) *****
"[\"{\\\"url\\\": \\\"https://www.nortonrosefulbright.com/en-th/knowledge/publications/2af90ff7/the-impact-of-thailand-climate-change-bill\\\", \\\"content\\\": \\\"Introduction. As Thailand strives towards carbon neutrality and net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, in alignment with the goals outlined in the Paris Agreement, on February 14, 2024, the Department of Climate Change and Environment (DCCE) took a significant step by launching a public hearing on the draft of Climate Change Act (Climate Change Law).\\\"}\", \"{\\\"url\\\": \\\"https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/NAP_THAILAND_2024.pdf\\\", \\\"content\\\": \\\"Environment (MNRE), the agency responsible for formulating the climate change policies and plans, has developed the Climate Change Master Plan 2015-2050 to provide a national policy framework on climate change with three priorities; namely adaptation, mitigation, and capacity-building. Nevertheless, with a view to\\\"}\", \"{\\\"url\\\": \\\"https://www.eiu.com/n/thailand-sustainability-policy-getting-its-act-together/\\\", \\\"content\\\": \\\"The surge in oil and gas prices as a result of the war in Ukraine, as well as political instability in Myanmar\\\\u2014Thailand\\\\u2019s key supplier of natural gas\\\\u2014add the need to increase renewable energy in the mix, in addition to the concern on the environment.\\\\n According to the long-term climate risk index by Germanwatch, an independent development and environmental organisation,\\\\u00a0Thailand is highly vulnerable to the impact of climate change and is ranked the ninth\\\\u00a0country in the \\\\u201cextreme risk\\\\u201d category that is most vulnerable to future climate change impact over the next 30\\\\u00a0years.\\\\u00a0 The Bank of Thailand, the central bank, together with the Securities Exchange Commission, are in the process of drafting the Thailand Taxonomy; it includes standards intended to lay the common framework on a sustainable finance ecosystem, which will facilitate products and financial services in support of green finance.\\\\n According to data from BP Statistical Review of World Energy\\\\u00a02022, Thailand\\\\u2019s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions growth of 0.8% annually in 2011\\\\u201121 is higher than the global average of 0.6%, but still lower than the Asia\\\\u2011Pacific average of\\\\u00a01.8%. In practice, the government\\\\u2019s efforts focus on four\\\\u00a0economic areas: food and agriculture; medical and wellness; energy, material, and biochemicals; and tourism and the \\\\u201ccreative\\\\u201d economy.\\\\u00a0\\\"}\", \"{\\\"url\\\": \\\"https://thailand.un.org/en/151103-achieving-just-transition-net-zero-economy-key-building-climate-resilience-thailand\\\", \\\"content\\\": \\\"Bangkok, Thailand - Business leaders representing Thailand's major industries today joined the Global Compact Network Thailand (GCNT) Forum 2021 and United Nations in issuing a strong call to action by the private sector community on climate sustainability ahead of the United Nations Climate Change Conference COP26 in November in Glasgow. They committed to transition to more sustainable\\\"}\", \"{\\\"url\\\": \\\"https://www.tilleke.com/insights/developments-in-thailands-draft-climate-change-law/\\\", \\\"content\\\": \\\"On February 14, 2024, Thailand's Department of Climate Change and Energy (DCCE) began holding public hearings on the draft Climate Change Act, which is being developed to help the country achieve its commitments under the Paris Agreement. These hearings, held throughout the country, are expected to be completed by the end of March 2024. Key features and developments of the draft Climate\\\"}\"]"
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EnvironmentalRiskAgent (to User):

Thought: Recent natural disasters in Bangkok.
Action: Execute Tavily search for recent natural disasters affecting Bangkok, Thailand.
Observation: The search results indicate that Bangkok and other areas of central Thailand have experienced major flooding in the past, with significant impacts on households and infrastructure.
Thought: Climate policy changes and environmental regulations in Thailand.
Action: Execute Tavily search for climate policy changes and environmental regulations in Thailand.
Observation: The search results highlight Thailand's efforts towards carbon neutrality and net-zero greenhouse gas emissions, including the launch of a public hearing on the draft Climate Change Act. The country is focusing on climate change policies, sustainable finance, and transitioning towards a more sustainable economy.

Next Steps:
1. Evaluate the government responses to recent natural disasters, especially flooding, to assess adaptation measures.
2. Explore further on Thailand's Climate Change Act and its implications for environmental regulations affecting suppliers.

Please give me a moment to perform the follow-up searches.
***** Suggested tool call (call_NvK6iq2mE149F6KaUKGpyuTn): tavily_search_tool *****
Arguments:
{"query": "Thailand government response to recent flooding in Bangkok"}
***********************************************************************************
***** Suggested tool call (call_zteTptYFKTlp9sc3g4IJG3jT): tavily_search_tool *****
Arguments:
{"query": "Thailand Climate Change Act implications for suppliers"}
***********************************************************************************

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

>>>>>>>> EXECUTING FUNCTION tavily_search_tool...

>>>>>>>> EXECUTING FUNCTION tavily_search_tool...
User (to EnvironmentalRiskAgent):

User (to EnvironmentalRiskAgent):

***** Response from calling tool (call_NvK6iq2mE149F6KaUKGpyuTn) *****
"[\"{\\\"url\\\": \\\"https://www.thailandnews.co/2024/09/thai-government-leads-nationwide-flood-relief-efforts/\\\", \\\"content\\\": \\\"BANGKOK (NNT) - Government officials have been dispatched to flood-affected areas nationwide in response to severe storms and landslides, with several ministers visiting key regions to oversee relief efforts and assist local communities.\\\"}\", \"{\\\"url\\\": \\\"https://bangkoklocal.info/2024/09/20/government-approves-3-billion-baht-flood-relief-fund/\\\", \\\"content\\\": \\\"The Thai government has approved a flood relief fund of 3 billion baht, now ready for immediate deployment to assist those affected by recent flooding. The announcement was made by Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Phumtham Wechayachai, who emphasized the urgency of utilizing these funds without the hindrance of bureaucratic delays.\\\"}\", \"{\\\"url\\\": \\\"https://thethaiger.com/news/national/government-assures-bangkok-safe-from-northern-floods\\\", \\\"content\\\": \\\"Picture courtesy of The Independant . The Government of Thailand urged residents not to panic after the recent deluge in the north of the country, adding it won't flood Bangkok or its neighbouring provinces. Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai declared that the caretaker administration has everything under control.. With waters wreaking havoc in Chiang Rai, Phrae, Nan, Phayao, and\\\"}\", \"{\\\"url\\\": \\\"https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2864501/pm-speeds-up-flood-aid\\\", \\\"content\\\": \\\"Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, far right, chairs an emergency meeting on the flooding in Chiang Rai and Chiang Mai, at Parliament House in Bangkok. It was her first emergency response\\\"}\", \"{\\\"url\\\": \\\"https://th.boell.org/en/2021/11/01/short-long-term-solutions-bangkok-flood\\\", \\\"content\\\": \\\"These changes to the city's environment and an overreliance on concrete, structural measure (grey infrastructure) made the flooding worse than it would have been and multiplied the losses Bangkok residents suffered. In response to the floods, however, the Thai and Bangkok governments reverted to the same old mindset and solutions that seek to\\\"}\"]"
**********************************************************************

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
User (to EnvironmentalRiskAgent):

***** Response from calling tool (call_zteTptYFKTlp9sc3g4IJG3jT) *****
"[\"{\\\"url\\\": \\\"https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/general/2808155/climate-changes\\\", \\\"content\\\": \\\"6. Thailand is drafting a climate change bill, with a plan to impose a carbon tax on manufacturers. A government pledge to cut a large amount of greenhouse gas emissions is expected to reshape how\\\"}\", \"{\\\"url\\\": \\\"https://www.eiu.com/n/thailand-sustainability-policy-getting-its-act-together/\\\", \\\"content\\\": \\\"The surge in oil and gas prices as a result of the war in Ukraine, as well as political instability in Myanmar\\\\u2014Thailand\\\\u2019s key supplier of natural gas\\\\u2014add the need to increase renewable energy in the mix, in addition to the concern on the environment.\\\\n According to the long-term climate risk index by Germanwatch, an independent development and environmental organisation,\\\\u00a0Thailand is highly vulnerable to the impact of climate change and is ranked the ninth\\\\u00a0country in the \\\\u201cextreme risk\\\\u201d category that is most vulnerable to future climate change impact over the next 30\\\\u00a0years.\\\\u00a0 The Bank of Thailand, the central bank, together with the Securities Exchange Commission, are in the process of drafting the Thailand Taxonomy; it includes standards intended to lay the common framework on a sustainable finance ecosystem, which will facilitate products and financial services in support of green finance.\\\\n According to data from BP Statistical Review of World Energy\\\\u00a02022, Thailand\\\\u2019s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions growth of 0.8% annually in 2011\\\\u201121 is higher than the global average of 0.6%, but still lower than the Asia\\\\u2011Pacific average of\\\\u00a01.8%. In practice, the government\\\\u2019s efforts focus on four\\\\u00a0economic areas: food and agriculture; medical and wellness; energy, material, and biochemicals; and tourism and the \\\\u201ccreative\\\\u201d economy.\\\\u00a0\\\"}\", \"{\\\"url\\\": \\\"https://www.tilleke.com/insights/developments-in-thailands-draft-climate-change-law/\\\", \\\"content\\\": \\\"On February 14, 2024, Thailand's Department of Climate Change and Energy (DCCE) began holding public hearings on the draft Climate Change Act, which is being developed to help the country achieve its commitments under the Paris Agreement. These hearings, held throughout the country, are expected to be completed by the end of March 2024. Key features and developments of the draft Climate\\\"}\", \"{\\\"url\\\": \\\"https://www.nortonrosefulbright.com/en-th/knowledge/publications/2af90ff7/the-impact-of-thailand-climate-change-bill\\\", \\\"content\\\": \\\"Introduction. As Thailand strives towards carbon neutrality and net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, in alignment with the goals outlined in the Paris Agreement, on February 14, 2024, the Department of Climate Change and Environment (DCCE) took a significant step by launching a public hearing on the draft of Climate Change Act (Climate Change Law).\\\"}\", \"{\\\"url\\\": \\\"https://www.nortonrosefulbright.com/en-us/knowledge/publications/2af90ff7/the-impact-of-thailand-climate-change-bill\\\", \\\"content\\\": \\\"Introduction. As Thailand strives towards carbon neutrality and net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, in alignment with the goals outlined in the Paris Agreement, on February 14, 2024, the Department of Climate Change and Environment (DCCE) took a significant step by launching a public hearing on the draft of Climate Change Act (Climate Change Law).\\\"}\"]"
**********************************************************************

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EnvironmentalRiskAgent (to User):

Final Answer:
1. Recent natural disasters in Bangkok, particularly flooding, have impacted various regions in Thailand, leading to nationwide flood relief efforts by the government. The Thai government has allocated a flood relief fund of 3 billion baht for immediate deployment to assist those affected.
2. Thailand is making significant progress in climate policy changes and environmental regulations, with the draft of the Climate Change Act aiming towards carbon neutrality and net-zero greenhouse gas emissions. The country is imposing a carbon tax on manufacturers and focusing on sustainable finance and renewable energy to address climate change challenges.

Based on the findings, ABC Supplier in Bangkok, Thailand may face environmental risks related to recurring natural disasters such as flooding and evolving environmental regulations. It is crucial for ABC Supplier to assess its resilience to natural disasters and adapt its operations to align with Thailand's climate policies to mitigate potential risks.

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User (to EnvironmentalRiskAgent):



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EnvironmentalRiskAgent (to User):

Terminate

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User (to EnvironmentalRiskAgent):



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EnvironmentalRiskAgent (to User):

Terminate

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User (to EnvironmentalRiskAgent):



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EnvironmentalRiskAgent (to User):

Terminate

4.3 输出解读

AI 代理通过基于 ReACT 的提示框架，结合 Tavily 的实时数据检索，展示了强大的自适应搜索能力。这种方法使代理能够根据初步观察动态调整搜索，从而获得更有针对性和更相关的见解。以下是每个代理如何应用自适应搜索来评估 ABC 供应商的不同风险因素：

财务风险见解

观察驱动的决策：在向 Tavily 询问“近期财务表现”和“债务水平或市场声誉”后，FinancialRiskAgent 观察到 ABC 供应商具有强大的运营绩效，甚至有未经请求的收购要约，表明财务稳定。基于这些积极的数据，代理决定不再进一步搜索“破产”或“诉讼”等术语，因为没有发现任何困境迹象。这种自适应决策通过避免不必要的后续查询节省了时间和资源。
最终评估：FinancialRiskAgent 得出结论，ABC 供应商表现出强大的运营绩效，没有财务风险迹象，对供应商的稳定性充满信心。

地缘政治风险洞察

顺序搜索调整：最初，地缘政治风险代理查询“东南亚政治稳定”和“东南亚贸易制裁”。通过观察政治变化和潜在制裁的指标，代理通过对“地缘政治风险 ABC 供应商东南亚”进行后续搜索来优化其关注点，以收集针对 ABC 供应商的特定洞察。这种自适应优化使代理能够收集有关相关地缘政治发展的背景信息，例如贸易政策影响和区域迁移趋势。
根据背景优化关注点：通过在一般观察后关注供应商特定风险，代理提供了更精确的评估。它强调了影响供应链的中美紧张局势等挑战以及东南亚作为替代枢纽的崛起带来的机遇。

环境风险洞察：

观察和跟进以进一步深入了解：环境风险代理首先查询曼谷和泰国的“最近的自然灾害”和“气候政策变化”。初步结果显示反复发生的洪水风险和政府在气候政策方面的行动。根据这些观察，代理决定对“泰国政府对最近曼谷洪水的应对措施”和“泰国气候变化法案对供应商的影响”进行后续搜索，以进一步了解政府的适应措施和监管影响。
有针对性的后续搜索：代理的自适应搜索发现了政府举措，例如 30 亿泰铢的洪水救济基金和即将出台的碳税。这使代理能够提出量身定制的建议，建议 ABC 供应商考虑遵守气候政策并提高对洪水的抵御能力。

5、为什么 Tavily 对自适应搜索至关重要

Tavily 在实现 AI 代理的自适应搜索行为方面发挥了关键作用，与静态 API 相比具有显著优势，否则静态 API 会限制代理的有效性。以下是 Tavily 对于此设置如此重要的原因：

实时数据检索 vs . 陈旧数据：

借助 Tavily 的实时搜索功能，代理可以访问有关 ABC 供应商的财务业绩、政治发展和环境风险的最新信息。例如，FinancialRiskAgent 发现了针对 ABC 供应商的近期收购要约，这表明市场信心。静态 API 可能只会定期更新，因此可能会错过这些新信息，从而可能导致过时的风险评估。

根据初步结果灵活地进行后续搜索：

Tavily 允许代理根据其初始查询的观察结果动态地进行后续搜索。例如，EnvironmentalRiskAgent 首先发现了洪水问题，然后通过查询“泰国政府对最近洪水的应对措施”进行了调整。这次后续搜索揭示了政府的救援工作和立法响应，从而提供了对风险的更细致的理解。静态 API 通常缺乏处理此类条件性、上下文敏感搜索的灵活性。

根据上下文适应特定供应商风险：

GeopoliticalRiskAgent 首先对政治稳定性和贸易制裁进行了广泛搜索，然后将其重点调整为“东南亚 ABC 供应商的地缘政治风险”，以发现 ABC 供应商的特定威胁和机遇。静态 API 通常提供通用的区域数据，缺乏根据特定供应商的情况定制响应的能力。Tavily 的适应性使代理能够提供与 ABC 供应商直接相关的见解，从而提高其风险状况的准确性。

适用于复杂、多维搜索的适应性查询结构：

Tavily 使每个代理能够执行复杂的多维搜索。例如，只有当债务水平较高时，FinancialRiskAgent 才能有条件地搜索重组事件或诉讼。具有预定义数据端点的静态 API 不支持这种灵活的条件查询，这限制了它们可以提供的洞察深度。

立即访问本地化的详细信息：

Tavily 能够检索本地化、特定于事件的数据，这使得代理能够考虑高度相关的本地背景，例如泰国最近的洪水救济计划和即将出台的气候法规。静态 API 可能只提供广泛的国家洪水风险数据或过时的环境政策，从而阻止 EnvironmentalRiskAgent 准确评估对曼谷 ABC 供应商的具体影响。

6、Tavily 如何克服静态 API 的局限性

使用 Tavily 可以让代理：

访问实时、最新的信息：代理收到有关财务绩效、政治事件和环境风险的最新数据，避免静态 API 中陈旧或过时的数据带来的陷阱。
执行自适应、上下文敏感的搜索：Tavily 使代理能够根据初始搜索结果自适应地探索风险的不同维度，例如在观察最近的洪水数据后深入了解政府的响应。
检索本地化和详细数据：Tavily 为代理提供特定于位置和最近事件的详细信息，从而能够根据影响 ABC 供应商的确切条件进行更精确的风险评估。

总之，Tavily 的动态搜索功能使 AI 代理能够执行灵活、实时和上下文相关的评估，而静态 API 根本无法匹配。通过使代理能够根据实时发现调整他们的查询，Tavily 为主动、全面的供应链风险管理方法奠定了基础。这说明了 Tavily 在使代理能够提供可操作的最新见解，帮助供应链团队做出更明智、更具弹性的决策方面发挥着关键作用。

7、关键要点

使用 Tavily 集成的具有实时自适应搜索功能的 AI 代理的演示凸显了这种方法在转变供应链风险管理方面的潜力。通过利用基于 ReACT 的提示，每个代理都能够：

动态优化搜索：代理不会拘泥于僵化的脚本；他们会在遇到相关信息时调整重点，在出现潜在问题时深入研究。
优化资源使用：通过有选择地仅进行相关的后续搜索，代理避免了冗余查询，从而使流程更加高效。
生成全面而有针对性的见解：最终的风险评估基于最新的、与上下文相关的数据，使供应链团队能够获得全面且可操作的风险概况。

虽然这是一个相对简单的案例，但它展示了 Tavily 的 AI 代理实时适应、学习和响应的能力——这些能力在当今快速发展的风险环境中至关重要。这项技术的潜在应用远远超出了供应链风险管理。在更复杂的场景中，例如金融交易、动态网络安全威胁评估或危机管理，配备实时自适应搜索功能的 AI 代理可以通过持续监控和应对具有复杂、多维风险的高风险情况来提供更大的价值。

从本质上讲，这个例子为可能发生的事情奠定了基础。随着这些 AI 驱动系统的不断发展，它们有可能成为各个行业不可或缺的工具，使组织能够在面对不确定性时做出更明智、更快、更明智的决策。

原文链接：AI-Driven Supply Chain Intelligence: Adaptive Web Search, with ReAct Prompting and AI Agents

汇智网翻译整理，转载请标明出处